(Reuters) – The economy is likely to grow in the range of 7.25 percent to 7.75 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2012, sharply lower than the original estimate of 9 percent, a mid-year review of the Indian economy tabled by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in parliament showed on Friday.
Following are the highlights from the review:
GROWTH
* 2011/12 GDP growth seen at 7.5 pct (+/- 0.25 pct).
PUBLIC FINANCES
* Meeting 2011/12 fiscal deficit target of 4.6 percent of GDP “will not be easy”.
* Determined to keep overshooting of 2011/12 fiscal deficit target to a minimum level.
* Consolidated fiscal deficit may be marginally up than the target of 6.8 pct of GDP.
* Global economic uncertainty risk may impact India’s tax receipts in 2011/12.
* Higher government expenditure due to rising subsidy bill needs policy initiatives.
* Decline in small savings collection has impacted government’s cash management.
INFLATION
* Some easing of inflation has started and is expected to continue.
* Medium-term supply-side measures to address bottlenecks crucial.
* Overall headline inflation likely to decline from December; expects fiscal year to end with 7 percent inflation.
* Global slowdown could cool fuel, commodity prices, partially offsetting weak rupee’s impact on imports.
DIVESTMENT
* Achieving state-run firms’ stake sale target of 400 billion rupees in 2011/12 will be a stiff task.
* Government likely to complete share sale of SAIL (SAIL.NS), ONGC (ONGC.NS), BHEL (BHEL.NS) by end-March 2012.
WEAK RUPEE
* Recent rupee depreciation may be seen as a lagged correction.
* Intervention in the local forex market should be limited, confined to controlling volatility, and not to alter the trend.
EXPORTS
* If situation in the U.S., EU worsens, services exports could be affected.
EXTERNAL DEBT
* External debt continues to remain within manageable limits.